What the US-Israeli Strikes on Iran Mean for Europe

Europe has no military leverage to shape this crisis and no energy resilience to absorb the shocks. That combination is about to get very expensive.

Yesterday, Saturday, February 28th, the United States and Israel launched the largest joint military operation in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Supreme Leader Khamenei is dead. Iran is firing missiles at six countries. And for the first time in history, the Strait of Hormuz, the artery through which 20% of the world's oil flows, is effectively closed.

What does this mean for Europe? Its gas storage sits at the lowest level since the Russian supply shock of winter 2021–22, and the LNG lifeline from Qatar runs directly through that chokepoint. And when markets open tomorrow, on Monday, March 2nd, we’ll find out what strategic dependence actually costs.

As of March 1, 2026, 19:00 CET.